Fragile Markets

There is something really fragile about the top companies' makeup.

Oracle just moved to almost 1 T, Broadcom is at 1.7 T...

There are 4 big hyperscalers now; they all buy most of their stuff from 1 supplier - NVIDIA.

NVIDIA makes all of its stuff from 1 supplier - TSMC

TSMC buys most of its stuff from 1 supplier such as ASML, and the Japanese companies...

The hyperscalers are deeply entwined with particular companies.

OCI depends on OpenAI and Meta, and NVIDIA (as customers)

Azure depends on OpenAI

Google depends on itself and Anthropic

AWS has many customers?

All of them need nutty amounts of power.

If claude, or chatgpt begin losing customers (switching costs are super low now) - what happens?

__________

Then there is the pvt credit market which is also depending on steady inflows because the round robins seem to have started. Banks like JP M are simply stepping back...

___

And then, gold, bitcoin and crypto treasury companies.

____

Looks like a weird pack of cards

Something's off

Nov 2024: I wrote: "Boom, boom boom, and I fired those people, emptied the whole building, but not a whine... its like those people had never existed."

Somethings gotta give

And here we are in August 2025

• The China real estate bubble burst - and nothing happened? Nobody's upset, people havent lost their life savings? Normally, when RE is a big chunk of the economy, and if RE bubbles burst, there is degrowth - how has China continued to grow?
  This makes me believe that similar to how nobody expected degrwoth and stagnation in Japan in 1985; this time too, there is degrowth and its like the 4th dimension that nobody can see.
• Israel attacked Iran, and the nuke facilities got bombed and no retaliation?
• Nobody cares about Gaza
• People are bugged with Putin, but he just isnt backing down
• Trump announces tariffs on everybody and the US economy still grows?
• The Mag 7 turn from FCF to low FCF and yet they add trillions in market cap?
• The Pvt Credit bubble continues unabated, and nobody cares about NPAs?
• Crypto assets are now mainstream? I mean, it says "Crypto".

Its all very fishy.

Reminds me of when I read this book in 2015; and it took until 2022 or so for the bubble to burst.

Bad!

Include me out

 Something just feels off.

The private equity and private credit market are just too big man. 

And then, that the NVIDIA GPUs are a fast depreciating asset of not more than 2-3 years of real life + I think its a bit like quantum physics (nobody really gets it), which is why Deepseek did what??

Scenarios:

NVIDIA falls to $1.5 T

That small island is scared because the ships came too close? Wait, they make 90% of all chips?

All those AI factories are kind of obsolete, because AI figured out how to make its own reasoning and inferencing more efficient

50% Depreciation of the currency

Something weird about gold going up 40% in a year ?

Hmmm; 4% NPAs on private credit. Of course, there is no hidden borrowings and cross collateralisations

Whats up with Elon + Trump? What if they have a fall out?

Things just feel odd. 

Old Man Buffett is ready.