Climate change is happening, and yet we wait... lack of political will to suffer I believe.
Similarly, what do we know?
1. That central banks the world over are beginning to nationalize. I think it is simply that - - it's a matter of one pocket instead of the other. Rather, the developed world is nationalizing its assets - - debt, and in Japan's case - equity of companies.
Truth?
I dont think its more complex than that - - I have reached this opinion based on the last 5 odd years of reading and thinking.
2. There is a crazy bubble in China. People are incentivized to invest either in trusts, WMPs or real estate. How do they have the money to invest in real estate? (Oddly this is one topic I dont read much of... who is financing the home buyers?)
Do housing bubble always pop? or do they at times, gradually deflate?
Gradual deflation of bubbles dont create juicy stories or mania - - I believe they tend to be under-reported. A gradual deflation could easily happen, where people begin to realise that other assets make more sense.
That said Chinese equities also seem quite expensive - - not on the main indices, since they tend to be SOEs; but rather the more privately owned companies.
This is unlike companies in Korea or Japan - which are still relatively cheap.
Another odd facet of China is that - there are some spirits in the economy at work. Chinese goods can be very good quality, services too - and consumption does not seem to be trivial.
Truth?
All in all - we know that there is overinvestment, overcapacities, state-support, financial repression juxtaposed against good brain power, ingenuity, and the willingness to take risks and invest internationally - and in turn get good talent.
3. There is immense friction in the EU. Countries are getting sick of each other (either because of politics, immigration, jobs or economics), and yet seem joined. But one day an Einstein will come by with a beginner's mind and say - the emperor has no clothes; that leaving the EU and the euro aint too bad; after all, things were fine before the euro came into being.
Truth?
A member will leave, and the domino will start. And finally - a country will be able to re-orient itself to its actual competitiveness... Companies will suffer, and companies will become stronger
The hilarious thing will be - in 2019 or 2020; people realising that there was no great deflation, there was no great inflation, and the world just kept muddling along.
We are the all singing all dancing crap of the world
Similarly, what do we know?
1. That central banks the world over are beginning to nationalize. I think it is simply that - - it's a matter of one pocket instead of the other. Rather, the developed world is nationalizing its assets - - debt, and in Japan's case - equity of companies.
Truth?
I dont think its more complex than that - - I have reached this opinion based on the last 5 odd years of reading and thinking.
2. There is a crazy bubble in China. People are incentivized to invest either in trusts, WMPs or real estate. How do they have the money to invest in real estate? (Oddly this is one topic I dont read much of... who is financing the home buyers?)
Do housing bubble always pop? or do they at times, gradually deflate?
Gradual deflation of bubbles dont create juicy stories or mania - - I believe they tend to be under-reported. A gradual deflation could easily happen, where people begin to realise that other assets make more sense.
That said Chinese equities also seem quite expensive - - not on the main indices, since they tend to be SOEs; but rather the more privately owned companies.
This is unlike companies in Korea or Japan - which are still relatively cheap.
Another odd facet of China is that - there are some spirits in the economy at work. Chinese goods can be very good quality, services too - and consumption does not seem to be trivial.
Truth?
All in all - we know that there is overinvestment, overcapacities, state-support, financial repression juxtaposed against good brain power, ingenuity, and the willingness to take risks and invest internationally - and in turn get good talent.
3. There is immense friction in the EU. Countries are getting sick of each other (either because of politics, immigration, jobs or economics), and yet seem joined. But one day an Einstein will come by with a beginner's mind and say - the emperor has no clothes; that leaving the EU and the euro aint too bad; after all, things were fine before the euro came into being.
Truth?
A member will leave, and the domino will start. And finally - a country will be able to re-orient itself to its actual competitiveness... Companies will suffer, and companies will become stronger
The hilarious thing will be - in 2019 or 2020; people realising that there was no great deflation, there was no great inflation, and the world just kept muddling along.
We are the all singing all dancing crap of the world
