First it was raveena kaun? Kareena kaun? - when will we get past covid? When will the zirp end?
Now it’s uncle kaun?? - Putin and the changed world perspective along with inflation.
It is said that the more things change the more they remain the same.
Covid seemed like a game changer and then I could see that the worst case scenario would be a 1% population decline. that said what happened eventually was what we call shaped recovery.
Global attitude towards the so called China factories changed and what is called the China +1 strategy came into being. Meanwhile the world started caring about the environment and started moving away from fossil fuels.
And then the wind stopped blowing in the UK and there was a surge in gas prices because UK still needed energy and seemingly out Of nowhere Putin decided to attack Ukraine and Europe, which is hooked on to Russian fossil fuels, now has to make a choice and I guess it’s going towards the US and the Middle East.
Along with this China decided to be allied along with this Russia and that creates interesting problems ; is the west going to rely on India much more for its growth/investment/future needs or maybe China might Do an about face and become a friendly global player?
For one, it does seem That fossil fuels will have to make a comeback and Europe has to choose away from Russia
It also feels as though the global demand to put money to work means that said money has to come to India
After all you can’t ignore a 1.4 billion population For too long
Going back to how I started this post, I want to believe, the more things change the more they remain the same because Europe is crippled by indecision and China seems to be dealing with its mal- investment/ over investment problem and maybe the next 20 years might just be similar to the last 20 years and by this I mean that there will be technological change, there will be internet enablement of the world population and that eventually it is particular companies that end up doing well versus the narrative that X country is going to do well
Somehow I am biased because I really don’t know how this reflexive market will function without money finding its way into India
Also I think that inflation that is mentioned here is going to be transitory it can’t continue for too long.
As charlie has said: Who would’ve thought that General Motors would go bankrupt or Kodak would go bankrupt or Mao zedong’s China would one day be a global leader?
Covid ought to have united the world, and it seems as though it is as divided as earlier.
Is this the end of Putin’s Russia? Difficult to believe it can survive this.
Notes:
If India’s system survives, Indian companies that cater to its local pooulation or to global b2b demand ought to thrive.
Is India’s greatest bull market ahead of us?
