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Monday, May 7, 2012

Valuation

Multiples approach, peer comparison, forms of discounted cash flows... these are the usual ways of looking at valuations of companies.
Valuations of companies matter differently based on the time horizon and objectives of investments

How about:

What is the earnings yield based on the current price at which I can buy the company?

What am I really buying with an equity share? (look at minority, preference, debt)

What is the company doing with its cash earnings? -> Is it going into repaying creditors? funding working capital? funding expansion through fixed assets? rewarding employees?

How certain am I that this company will make this much money (profits) in the future? Is there potential for losses?

How certain am I that this company can make a lot more money in the future?

How can the company utilise the cash it generates in growing the business at a similar rate as in the past?

Through all of the above, how can the value of the company erode relative to the current market value? And how can the value of the company substantially increase from hereon?

How sustainable are the company's operations in relation to the field of business in which it operates? i.e. does it have to keep changing itself at a fast pace/ slow pace/ or not really...

Friday, May 4, 2012

Gum

There is so much to learn from WB. "Will the internet change the way I chew gum?" "Will the internet change the way I buy gum?" "Ok, you buy the internet, I buy the gum."
There is no substitute for surety. Established business will perform well over the long term if they stay away from risks. So, if quarterly results worry you because copper prices went up and the cost of goods went up, that usually means that an established company is going to do something to tackle such issues in the future. Hence, earnings in the future will be taken care of.
And this is where consumption companies can be excellent; once a customer is addicted to a brand he/ she does not want to change and will willingly pay marginally higher for the perceived better quality.
Sadly, how does one have any inkling of how sales can grow over a 10 year period in a sector that is fraught with competition? And this is where art comes in...
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