Things dont tend to change. People like sweet things, people like carbohydrates, people need materials like cement, steel, plastics, people like brands, people struggle for power and prestige and incentives tend to be strong influencers.
What are the changes I am seeing?
- Modes of transport
- Need to save the 'climate' vs the economic hardships of doing so
- Global engines of manufacturing
- Budget/ Economic deficits in the large economies
Modes of Transport
People dont need to commute as much - their entertainment can be at home and their work can be done from home.
When traveling, electricity seems to be powering more vehicles. Whether it will be hydrogen, LFP, aluminum; I dont know. But it seems fairly clear that oil based vehicles are going to decline substantially.
- What these things do for oil, refining, mining, manufacturing, plastics, downstream industries, OPEC, Australia, Congo, etc - are quite uncertain.
- What the advent of oil did for a lot of OPEC countries was unprecedented; but 100 years ago, nobody would have bet on UAE or Saudi' prosperity; and similarly, one would have thought Venezuela to be unimaginably rich
Climate
Life seems to be struggling against climate change - some life will thrive and others wont. The culprit seems to be too many humans caring single mindedly about convenience and economics.
Now, does that make the US a safe haven against climate change vs a Europe that's getting colder or coastal megapolises that might drown or get damaged? Could a mega-cyclone change the way Indians behave? Will there be a tipping point that leads to a mass movement of people away from certain countries?
Could there be a famine in a developing nation?
And how should a family protect itself against something like that?
Manufacturing
Apparently, its mad difficult to set up a new manufacturing facility in parts of Europe. Either its the people, or the local laws or the green police that makes things difficult.
China seems to have been uneconomic in its manufacturing decisions over the last 10-15 years; will there be a resurgence? Doubt it. But will the South and South East Asia be the new manufacturers for the world? Seems quite likely - with the abundance of people, along with people with brains and people with capital to power it.
Could this be the next 20 years of a non-China manufacturing powerhouse?
Budget/ Economic deficits in the large economies
I have often looked with disdain at poor European countries with people living cushy lives - I just cant figure out how they can afford it. As is said; there is no free lunch.
The US too seems to have a big crisis that has been in the making for the last 30 years or so - the Medicare, Medicaid, Pension, old people problem.
How do these things influence policymakers or central bankers?
Canada, NZ, Australia seem to have realized that they need immigrants to power their economies - physically and economically. Will the US and Europe really awaken to that?
Could we be facing a 20 year period of austerity?
All these are just musings. They are fun to ponder over but they dont seem to influence my big investment decisions.
But yes, they are influencing my backup/ insurance policies.
I am trying to get ready for the 'what if?' scenarios.
