Mandi ka moo kala

 I wonder whats up; the IEA is saying that things are going to get worse in April because physical supplies of oil and gas will actually dry up.

Helium shortage; Open AI closes a $122 B round, Pvt credit companies figuring out continuation vehicles and secondary buyers, Fannie and SpaceX IPOs?

But lets see.

The odds are that economies tend to cope.

The IVs of the OTM calls have crashed.

But one simple table shows us what can happen:

See the YoY numbers.

A country which should attract a mad amount of FDI because of AI, and where the consumption story is genuinely intact ought to rerate soon. 

In a scenario where the world goes back to normal oil and gas, or a scenario where India's heft allows it to get a chunk of the oil and gas at the expense of poorer economies, a sharp rerating is possible. 

Anyway.

Focus is always: One foot fence, low price, margin of safety, position sizing and knowing one's competence. 

I wonder if long dated calls fulfil these conditions.

Howard Marks reminded me: Best to stay in the 'I dont know' bracket of investors.

I ran from Iran

 So, the market has found its issue.

The Iran thing was building up, but I doubt anyone foresaw the intensity of damage, the Hormuz being shut, and that Iran would retaliate against its neighbours.

I foresaw an oil price spike but nothing more really - thought it would be an extremely localised issue.

Just another example of unknown unknowns.

I doubt anyone foresaw a Qatar gas shutdown. 

_________

Meanwhile, in another corner of the market there are rumblings of a private credit issue; guess it got precipitated by the SAASpocalypse because of Claude etc.

And skeletons like First Brands, MFS etc.

(Intg story, I had met Paresh 8 years ago when he pitched me for a product - bullet dodged)

____

Meanwhile, the Mag 7 continue to spin money and build out the AI stuff; NVIDIA, TSMC, Broadcom, and suppliers keep getting dollops of cash from the hyperscalers.

Oddly, the consumer is not really spending a lot more, but are enterprises spending more?

The more things change, the more they remain the same.

This is another market cycle; it will destroy a few companies; Berkshire is ready with cash.

The Iran war might end abruptly, but the AI and private credit fiasco will continute to grow/ unravel?

 

The ability to see

 If only we could be kids.

They see things the way things look to them.

Chatgpt is a commodity.

Bitcoin is a fraud

Trump is just another president.

Why are all the wild animals only in my books?

Private Credit was a fine idea; they are now just hungry lenders who dont have a 'run on deposits' risk. Hungry lenders tend to lose money.

Fat people are now injecting themselves because they cant resist the temptation of high carbs and sugars.

Adults keep looking into their phones.

Now, can I please go and play.

Remember

Remember that in 2019, even before the COVID mayhem, we had ADAG, DHFL, GMR, Yes Bank, ILFS, Crompton, Jet Airways, Essar Group, Coffee Day, Zee Group, Cox and Kings, Adhunik, Amtek, Videocon, Bhushan failing.

And since 2021 we have barely had a whimper.

No frauds, No NPAs.

Its only when the tide goes out...

Addendum:

Maduro gets kidnapped

Iran is falling? 

Greenland is being purchased?

And there is barely a whimper.

Reminds me of the Icahn interview... "I fired the whole floor, and its like a bomb went off... there were no complaints, nothing. Its like nobody even cared and nobody was ever there"