I wonder whats up; the IEA is saying that things are going to get worse in April because physical supplies of oil and gas will actually dry up.
Helium shortage; Open AI closes a $122 B round, Pvt credit companies figuring out continuation vehicles and secondary buyers, Fannie and SpaceX IPOs?
But lets see.
The odds are that economies tend to cope.
The IVs of the OTM calls have crashed.
But one simple table shows us what can happen:
See the YoY numbers.
A country which should attract a mad amount of FDI because of AI, and where the consumption story is genuinely intact ought to rerate soon.
In a scenario where the world goes back to normal oil and gas, or a scenario where India's heft allows it to get a chunk of the oil and gas at the expense of poorer economies, a sharp rerating is possible.
Anyway.
Focus is always: One foot fence, low price, margin of safety, position sizing and knowing one's competence.
I wonder if long dated calls fulfil these conditions.
Howard Marks reminded me: Best to stay in the 'I dont know' bracket of investors.
