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Sunday, August 3, 2014

The Long Game

The universe of things that have not come to pass
And
The work that goes into eventual greatness

These 2 profound models of thoughts go a long way into making us more humble about who we are and how we can be.

Dilip Sanghvi did not become worth USD 17 B worth overnight.
Avanti Feeds, Symphony Coolers and Just Dial have a limit to their short term voting machine based success.
Quality companies bought at rich valuations are good for investors only with hindsight - there are companies which were deemed quality and they then faltered. 

This post on Farnam street and the video in it makes me think of:
1. The effort it takes into becoming better and eventually, great.
Zuckerberg was lucky and brilliant.
Most of us are not.

2. The effort it takes towards creating an enduring corporation
Unless one has a brilliant product or service, it takes a lot of human power and ingenuity to create an organisation that succeeds. Read Dream Big - the story about 3G Capital.
Buffett started super early, was super smart and incredibly focused - and even then he made countless mistakes.

And here we are. Children of the internet age.
We believe that if we read a few books, and read letters written by great investors, we can find outstanding companies and compound capital for many years.
We believe that 1-2 years into the business, we will have garnered a lot of information to make our decisions sound.

Focusing on the long term, and staying away from stories of greatness and potential treasures - companies that go 10x in 2 years - go a long way towards ensuring long lived success.

Btw, I had said no to Avanti Feeds 2 years ago at 100 a share because the risk of the company going kaput was too great. Was I right or wrong?
It's at 1100 a share today, and worth more than 1000 Cr.

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