Post Mortem

Based on my last post, I thought I'd do a post mortem of sorts... what happened?

 1. My inexperience in seeing the forest - I kept seeing the trees. Funnily, I thought I could see the forest and that these trees will figure out how to thrive through the storm.

The storm was more ferocious than thought; and the trees were weaker than thought.

 

2.Heavy capex implies heavier luck - A Deepak Nitrite executed wonderfully and lucked out.

My company executed well and got poor luck.

My other company executed wonderfully and navigated the bad luck very well

 

3. Conservative sounding confident management fooled me

I believed they knew how to steer - they didnt.

I believed they were monitoring risks - yes; but it exceeded their expectations

My big winners never promised much; guided for less and grew profits manifold. 

 

4. My low PE strategy with respectable ROEs tends to work

This is something that I am comfortable with; and the last 10 years hasnt seen a serious de-rating of heavily valued companies; hoping for schadenfreude

 

 

All in all - it looks like I need to be a lot more conservative.

When I started, promoters fooling me was a bigger issue - turns out; promoters fooling themselves is also a big issue.

A lot more conservative... ?